Friday, November 8, 2013

Plan B - The Tinkerbell Option

The "website" for Obamaare is promised to be fixed by the end of November. I'll bet it's not. Any takers?   I'll donate one hundred dollars to your favorite charity if I'm wrong.

In his book Systemantics, the Systems Bible, John Gall postulates the following axioms.
A COMPLEX SYSTEM THAT WORKS IS INVARIABLY FOUND TO HAVE EVOLVED FROM A SIMPLE SYSTEM THAT WORKED

A COMPLEX SYSTEM DESIGNED FROM SCRATCH NEVER WORKS AND CANNOT BE MADE TO WORK.  YOU HAVE TO START OVER, BEGINNING WITH A WORKING SIMPLE SYSTEM
The ObamaCare site is not just "a website". It's a complex super-system of interconnected complex systems. The computer systems are in different agencies like the IRS, and Social Security.   There are centers spread out through different states and using different programs, data bases and interfaces.  They all have to work together. Compounding that problem is the certainty that most of those computer systems didn't work very well to start with. Did you ever try to sigh on to the Social Security site?

Part two of the problem is the human side of the project.  It's not just computer systems that have to work together, it's the various agencies with all the built in turf wars and bureaucratic jealousies.

ObamaCare is managing to cause the very problem it was suppose to solve. Lots of people are experiencing a cancellation of their insurance. Lots of people are experiencing a significant raise in cost. The high-risk pools have been terminated. The federal government is itself a complex system and as Gall writes, "Any large system is going to be operating most of the time in failure mode".

So what comes next? If an individual has received a cancellation notice effective at the end of the year, he must acquire new insurance by December 15 in order to keep a continuity of coverage.

Talk of the so-called mandate and extending the registration period for the purposes of avoiding a penalty are of little consequence to a family with no insurance.

What's Obama's plan if  people lose their policies but cannot sign up?  What is the Obama Administration going to do next?

So far it seems to be gathering a bunch of true believing Democrats in increasingly smaller campaign venues and have everybody clap and chant, "I believe....I believe".

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